Wednesday, October 18, 2006

China holding up the U.S. Economy?

This is the first few paragraphs of the latest China story Becky ushered onto Page One. I thought it was well worth reading. If anyone wants to see the whole thing, let me know and I will forward you a link.




China's Reserves Near Milestone,
Underscoring Its Financial Clout

By ANDREW BROWNE
October 17, 2006; Page A1

BEIJING -- Sometime in the next few days, China's holdings of foreign currencies and securities will top $1 trillion -- a sum greater than the annual economic output of all but nine countries. The rapid growth in these so-called foreign-exchange reserves has made Beijing a colossus in the financial world, cushioned against shocks at home, but potentially able to trigger them abroad.

How China manages its growing pool of wealth has major repercussions for the global economy. Beijing's reserves totaled $987.9 billion as of Sept. 30 and are growing by roughly $20 billion a month. That total compares with the about $1.2 trillion in assets under management at U.S. mutual-fund giant Fidelity Investments.
[Hu Xiaolian]

As the pot grows, the secretive and sophisticated portfolio managers at China's central bank are trying gradually to boost their country's returns on its foreign-exchange holdings, at least in part by making somewhat riskier but higher-yielding investments. Last spring, an unsuccessful effort to divine their intentions sparked a steep run-up in the price of gold.

For the U.S., how China deploys its reserves is a question of some consequence. Most of China's currency reserves are invested in U.S.-dollar-denominated debt, such as U.S. Treasurys, which are considered the world's safest investment. That has kept demand for U.S. Treasury notes high -- and interest rates low. A change in that pattern could affect how much Americans pay for mortgage loans and other borrowings.

Some in Washington and in world markets fear that China might one day dump its holdings of dollar-based assets, setting off a tidal wave of sales that might swamp the U.S. economy. Despite such fears, there's no sign that China is making a major move out of dollars and into euros or other foreign currencies, even though Chinese economists have occasionally warned that the weak dollar holds down the value of China's holdings.